Track record · closed signal

Porch Group, Inc. (PRCH) — closed signal from August 26, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 24, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PRCH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$15.50 – $16.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$16.04Published — price the day we called it

$20.85Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$19.44Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$9.45Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 71% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$19.44

peak on September 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+21.2%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$9.45

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

August 26, 2025 – November 24, 2025

The thesis — published August 26, 2025

Predicted growth

+30%

over the measurement window

Target price

$20.85

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$15.50 – $16.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$16.04

published August 26, 2025

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Porch is drawing strong interest, and the stock has been very active. Recent results beat expectations, management raised 2025 goals, and a higher Wall Street target suggests the outlook and finances are improving. The trend is up, but the business is still light on hard numbers, so buying on dips over the next 0-3 months can work if you plan for swings. The big watch-outs are execution and how the insurance market behaves.

Primary drivers

Leaders boosted 2025 goals, pointing to stronger sales and profit plans
The uptrend looks real, with more buyers stepping in than usual
Debt and funding look better organized, easing pressure on the business
Fast-moving stock, so position size and exits need extra discipline

How it played out

PRCH: target not reached after 21.2% peak gain

Lyra published PRCH on 2025-08-26 at 16.04 with expected growth of 30%. The thesis pointed to raised 2025 goals, an uptrend with unusual buyer interest, better organized debt and funding, and a fast-moving stock that needed discipline around size and exits.

Inside the window, PRCH rose to 19.44 on 2025-09-22, a 21.2% peak gain. That stayed below the 20.85 target, so the target was never reached. By 2025-11-24, it ended at 9.45. The thesis partially played out on the early move, but it missed the target and finished well below the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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