NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 5, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 3, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published July 5, 2025
After a quiet spell, Nvidia climbed back above its recent average price, showing buyers are taking charge again. Partner Vertiv jumping 19% last month signals healthy demand for data-center gear that relies on Nvidia chips. Rumors of the new Blackwell chip family could trigger another round of upgrades. Shares are pricey, so waiting for a dip near $155 before aiming for a 15-20% gain over the next few months looks wiser.
Primary drivers
- Share price moved above recent average and buying strength ranks a high 93.
- Vertiv's 19% leap hints that data-center spending and chip demand stay strong.
- Talk of new Blackwell chips may push customers to refresh their hardware soon.
- Stock is expensive; careful timing needed to avoid jumping in at a peak.
How it played out
NVDA: thesis nearly reached the target
Lyra published NVDA at $159.32 on 2025-07-05 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to the share price moving above its recent average, buying strength ranked 93, Vertiv's 19% leap as a sign of data-center demand, talk of new Blackwell chips, and the need for careful timing because the stock was expensive.
Inside the window, NVDA rose to a peak of $191.04 on 2025-10-02, with a peak gain of 19.9%. The target was $191.17. It never reached the target. The stock ended the window at $187.61 on 2025-10-03. The thesis nearly played out, but it missed by the rule that mattered here.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-27, Nvidia reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $46.7 billion and data-center revenue of $41.1 billion. On 2025-09-22, Nvidia and OpenAI announced a partnership tied to up to $100 billion of Nvidia investment and at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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