The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from August 26, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 24, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 18% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published August 26, 2025
Schwab appears ready to rebound after a pullback, with price momentum improving and investor mood steadying. The firm now oversees $10.96 trillion for clients, giving it a powerful base that can drive activity if borrowing costs ease. With markets moderately positive, a gradual move toward the higher end of its recent range over the next 0-3 months looks reasonable if entries are paced carefully. Main risk: softer trading activity.
Primary drivers
- Pullback looks over and the recent average price is turning higher
- Client assets reached $10.96T, showing a large and steady base of money
- Possible rate cuts could encourage more deposits and investing activity
- Overall setup looks solid, with improving price action and sentiment
How it played out
SCHW: the target was not reached
On 2025-08-26, Lyra published a short-term SCHW thesis at 96.08. It expected 12% growth toward 107.30 over the next three months. The thesis pointed to a pullback ending, improving price momentum, steadier sentiment, $10.96 trillion in client assets, possible rate cuts, and the risk of softer trading activity.
Inside the window from 2025-08-26 to 2025-11-24, SCHW peaked at 98.22 on 2025-11-12, with a 2.2% gain. It stayed below 107.30 and never reached the target. The stock ended at 90.52. The thesis partially played out on the early rebound, but missed the published target.
What happened during the window
On Oct. 16, 2025, The Wall Street Journal reported Schwab third-quarter profit available to common stockholders of $2.28 billion, adjusted earnings of $1.31 a share, and revenue of $6.14 billion. Barron's reported the same day that Schwab had $137.5 billion in core net new assets and total client assets of $11.59 trillion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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