Track record · closed signal

Antero Resources Corporation (AR) — closed signal from August 25, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 23, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

AR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$30.89 Published $37.69 Target $33.55 Window close $35.93 Peak
$30.00 – $31.20Entry zone — fair-value band
$30.89Published — price the day we called it
$37.69Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$35.93Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$33.55Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 74% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$35.93
peak on November 20, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+16.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$33.55
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 25, 2025 – November 23, 2025

The thesis — published August 25, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$37.69
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$30.00 – $31.20
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$30.89
published August 25, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

After a recent drop, the stock looks appealing because the possible upside seems larger than the downside. Investor mood is positive and the business looks sound. The energy sector is firm, though talk of too much natural gas could weigh on prices. Price signals are mixed, so consider buying near the low end and adding only if it starts making higher lows. Over 3 months, steadier commodity prices and discipline could help a recovery.

Primary drivers

  • Positive mood and steady finances support the case after the recent dip.
  • Energy sector is firm, but high natural gas supply remains a headwind.
  • Start near the lower price area to manage downside risk more carefully.
  • Add if higher lows appear, showing buyers are gaining the upper hand.

How it played out

AR: thesis partially played out but target was missed

Lyra published AR at $30.89 on 2025-08-25 with a short-term thesis for 22% expected growth. The thesis pointed to positive mood, steady finances, a firm energy sector, and possible recovery if commodity prices steadied. It also noted high natural gas supply as a headwind and mixed price signals.

Inside the window through 2025-11-23, AR rose to a peak of $35.93 on 2025-11-20, with a 16.3% peak gain. It stayed below the $37.69 target. It never got there. The stock ended at $33.55. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AR signals