Track record · closed signal

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) — closed signal from August 25, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 23, 2025 — -15.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ORCL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$232.19 – $236.18Entry zone — fair-value band

$235.30Published — price the day we called it

$270.13Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$345.12Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$198.76Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 16 days.

At window close

-15.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+46.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$198.76

last close inside the window, ended November 23, 2025

Peak price

$345.12

peak on September 10, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published August 25, 2025

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$270.13

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$232.19 – $236.18

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$235.30

published August 25, 2025

Confidence

64%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Oracle's share price has fallen hard, which can create opportunity if demand is picking up. The price sits below its recent average, giving a clear plan for how much to risk. A new win with Diebold Nixdorf for Oracle Fusion with built-in AI supports future sales, and AI tools that can take actions are a fast-growing area. Hype is ahead of current results, so we want the price to climb back above recent averages before betting on a 3-month bounce.

Primary drivers

Shares dropped sharply, so downside can be planned and limited with care.
News: Diebold Nixdorf chose Oracle Fusion with built-in AI, a real customer win.
Rising demand for AI that can take actions should lift Oracle's cloud sales.
We want proof of strength from price action before getting more confident.

How it played out

ORCL: target reached in 16 days

Lyra published ORCL at $235.30 on 2025-08-25, looking for 15% growth to $270.13 over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a sharp share-price drop, a Diebold Nixdorf Oracle Fusion win with built-in artificial intelligence, demand for action-taking tools, and the need for proof from price action.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 16 days. It peaked at $345.12 on 2025-09-10, a 46.7% gain. The move did not hold through the full window, and ORCL ended at $198.76 on 2025-11-23. The published thesis played out on the target test.

What happened during the window

On 2025-09-09, Oracle reported fiscal first-quarter results, and Investor's Business Daily reported that remaining performance obligations rose to $455 billion. On 2025-09-22, Investopedia reported that Oracle named Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia as co-CEOs, with Safra Catz moving to executive vice chair.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ORCL signals