Track record · closed signal

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from July 5, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 3, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

HMY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$14.31 Published $16.97 Target $18.11 Window close $18.87 Peak
$13.69 – $14.39Entry zone — fair-value band
$14.31Published — price the day we called it
$16.97Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$18.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$18.11Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 79 days.

Peak price
$18.87
peak on October 2, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+31.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$18.11
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
79
Window
July 5, 2025 – October 3, 2025

The thesis — published July 5, 2025

Predicted growth
+19%
over the measurement window
Target price
$16.97
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$13.69 – $14.39
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$14.31
published July 5, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Harmony plans to buy a $1 B copper project, giving it income from both gold and copper. After a cease-fire headline pushed gold lower, trading volume jumped and investor optimism hit 98, hinting at more upside. The firm met yearly targets, which supports cash flow. Power cuts in South Africa and finishing the copper deal still pose risks. If gold steadies, the share could climb to $17-18 in the next quarter.

Primary drivers

  • Buying surged after the gold dip, pointing to room for the stock to rise.
  • $1 B copper purchase adds a second metal and may lure new investors.
  • Company restated yearly goals, easing worries about near-term cash.
  • Mood is strong, but South African power cuts remain a real concern.

How it played out

HMY: target reached in 79 days

Lyra published HMY at $14.31 on 2025-07-05 with expected growth of 19% and a target of $16.97. The thesis pointed to the planned $1 B copper purchase, buying after a gold dip, restated yearly goals, strong mood, and the risk from South African power cuts.

Inside the window, HMY reached the target in 79 days. It peaked at $18.87 on 2025-10-02, with a peak gain of 31.8%. It ended the window at $18.11. The published thesis played out, and the stock finished above the target.

What happened during the window

On Aug. 28, 2025, Harmony reported fiscal 2025 earnings. The company said production was in line with guidance and gave an outlook of 1.4 million to 1.5 million ounces for the year ahead.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All HMY signals