Track record · closed signal

Porch Group, Inc. (PRCH) — closed signal from August 24, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 22, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PRCH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$16.63 Published $20.29 Target $9.12 Window close $19.44 Peak
$15.80 – $17.20Entry zone — fair-value band
$16.63Published — price the day we called it
$20.29Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$19.44Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$9.12Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 77% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$19.44
peak on September 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+16.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$9.12
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 24, 2025 – November 22, 2025

The thesis — published August 24, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$20.29
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$15.80 – $17.20
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$16.63
published August 24, 2025
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Porch's stock has been moving fast after the company raised its 2025 sales and profit outlook, and there is far more buying interest than usual. Excitement is high, but the business base is still small, so price swings can be big. The price already sits above many analyst targets, showing a change in mood. If you buy, consider doing it on dips, allow room for volatility, take some profits on strength, and watch insurance risk and cash needs.

Primary drivers

  • Price jumped recently with far more buying than usual, pushing the trend higher.
  • Company raised 2025 sales and profit goals, signaling stronger growth ahead.
  • Share price moved above many analyst targets, showing a shift in expectations.
  • Smaller company means bigger price swings; be ready for fast moves both ways.

How it played out

PRCH: thesis partially played out, target not reached

Lyra published PRCH at $16.63 on 2025-08-24 for a short-term window through 2025-11-22. The thesis expected 22% growth. It pointed to a recent fast move on far more buying than usual, raised 2025 sales and profit goals, a share price above many analyst targets, and the risk of fast moves because the company was small.

Inside the window, PRCH rose to $19.44 on 2025-09-22, a 16.9% peak gain. It stayed below the $20.29 target, so it never got there. By 2025-11-22, it ended at $9.12. The thesis partly played out at first, then missed by the close.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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