Track record · closed signal

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) — closed signal from August 24, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 22, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

DIS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$118.06 Published $128.99 Target $103.58 Window close $118.98 Peak
$115.43 – $117.41Entry zone — fair-value band
$118.06Published — price the day we called it
$128.99Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$118.98Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$103.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 8% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$118.98
peak on September 5, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+0.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$103.58
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 24, 2025 – November 22, 2025

The thesis — published August 24, 2025

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$128.99
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$115.43 – $117.41
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$118.06
published August 24, 2025
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Disney looks like it is recovering after a slow patch, with more buyers stepping in than usual. Its famous brands (Disney, Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar, ESPN) help keep value steady even if park trips feel pricey for some families. A strong stock market helps near-term prices. We prefer a careful starter position and want to see streaming margins improve and park traffic hold up before getting more confident.

Primary drivers

  • Buying interest is improving, with more demand showing up in recent trading
  • Strong brands like Disney, Marvel, and Star Wars help protect long-term value
  • The Dow hitting new highs makes investors feel better about owning stocks
  • Theme parks may feel expensive, which could slow visits and spending

How it played out

DIS: the target was never reached

Lyra published DIS at 118.06 on 2025-08-24 with a short-term thesis for 10% growth. The target was 128.99. The thesis pointed to improving buying interest, strong brands including Disney, Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar, and ESPN, a stronger stock market, and the risk that pricey theme parks could slow visits and spending.

Inside the window, DIS peaked at 118.98 on 2025-09-05, a 0.8% gain. It stayed below the target and never reached 128.99. By 2025-11-22, it ended at 103.58. The thesis missed on price.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-13, Disney reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings. Business Insider reported profit of $1.11 per share and revenue of $22.46 billion. Axios reported that Disney and YouTube TV reached a multi-year distribution agreement on 2025-11-15 after a blackout that began on 2025-10-30.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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