Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from August 24, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 22, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$92.47 – $96.45Entry zone — fair-value band

$95.56Published — price the day we called it

$110.53Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$98.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$90.51Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 18% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$98.22

peak on November 12, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+2.8%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$90.51

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

August 24, 2025 – November 22, 2025

The thesis — published August 24, 2025

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$110.53

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$92.47 – $96.45

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$95.56

published August 24, 2025

Confidence

86%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab looks like it fell too far, too fast, while the business remains sound. If interest rates ease, trading and banking activity often improve, which can help earnings. Assets on the platform look steady. A peer, LPL, just reported rising assets, and more investors started buying after Powell spoke. Together, these point to a possible multi-week climb back toward earlier highs. That sets up a recovery window.

Primary drivers

Stock looks pushed down too far, while the broader market mood is improving.
Falling interest rates can lift client activity and slowly improve banking margins.
Peer LPL reported growing client assets, a positive signal for the industry.
Investor mood is improving, and the stock appears to be forming a steadier base.

How it played out

SCHW: the target was never reached

Lyra published SCHW at $95.56 on 2025-08-24. The thesis expected 16% growth toward $110.53 over a short-term window. It pointed to a stock that looked pushed down too far, easier interest rates, steadier client assets, LPL's growing client assets, better investor mood, and a steadier base.

Inside the window, SCHW peaked at $98.22 on 2025-11-12. That was a 2.8% gain, but it stayed below the $110.53 target. The stock ended at $90.51 on 2025-11-22. The thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-16, Schwab reported third-quarter results, with profit available to common stockholders of $2.28 billion and revenue of $6.14 billion. On 2025-11-06, Schwab said it would buy Forge Global in a deal valued at about $660 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals