Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from August 24, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 22, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$177.97 Published $220.66 Target $178.87 Window close $212.18 Peak
$172.96 – $180.96Entry zone — fair-value band
$177.97Published — price the day we called it
$220.66Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$212.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$178.87Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$212.18
peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+19.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$178.87
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 24, 2025 – November 22, 2025

The thesis — published August 24, 2025

Predicted growth
+24%
over the measurement window
Target price
$220.66
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$172.96 – $180.96
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$177.97
published August 24, 2025
Confidence
90%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA looks ready for a near-term bounce after a quick pullback, with lots more people buying than usual. The company leads in chips for AI and big server rooms, plus the software that makes those chips useful, so demand should stay strong for many quarters. Weekend stories about Elon Musk building a huge AI effort show how big the spending could be. Be ready for sharp moves when new information hits.

Primary drivers

  • Recent pullback with unusually heavy buying suggests a bounce is likely
  • Strong lead in AI server chips and software makes rivals hard to catch
  • High-profile AI projects in the news signal rising need for more chips
  • Shares often rise into big announcements, showing strong buyer interest

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at 177.97 on 2025-08-24, looking for 24% growth toward 220.66. The thesis pointed to a quick pullback with unusually heavy buying, a strong lead in artificial intelligence server chips and software, high-profile artificial intelligence projects in the news, and a pattern of shares rising into big announcements.

Inside the 2025-08-24 to 2025-11-22 window, NVDA rose to 212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 19.2% peak gain. That was below 220.66, so the target was never reached. The stock ended at 178.87. The thesis partially played out: the bounce arrived, but it did not reach the published target.

What happened during the window

On August 27, 2025, Nvidia reported second-quarter results and announced a $60 billion stock buyback. On September 22, 2025, Nvidia and OpenAI announced a partnership tied to up to $100 billion of investment and at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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