Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from July 5, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 3, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$134.36 Published $185.42 Target $173.07 Window close $190.00 Peak
$128.00 – $136.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$134.36Published — price the day we called it
$185.42Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$190.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$173.07Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 34 days.

Peak price
$190.00
peak on August 12, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+41.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$173.07
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
34
Window
July 5, 2025 – October 3, 2025

The thesis — published July 5, 2025

Predicted growth
+38%
over the measurement window
Target price
$185.42
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$128.00 – $136.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$134.36
published July 5, 2025
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock has fallen about 10% from its recent trend, making it look cheap just as trading activity is more than double normal levels, suggesting big investors are stepping in. Customer orders grew 40%, and a well-publicized TV shout-out calling for a $200 price has pulled in many everyday buyers. If the share price snaps back toward its past range, it could reach $160-$170 within three months.

Primary drivers

  • Price gauges imply sellers are drained near the recent 100-day average.
  • Volume is over twice normal, hinting large investors are buying the dip.
  • Customer orders rose 40%, showing AI work is pushing sales higher.
  • A TV call for $200 stirred strong interest from everyday traders.

How it played out

PLTR: target reached in 34 days

Lyra published PLTR at $134.36 on July 5, 2025, with expected growth of 38%. The thesis pointed to sellers being drained near the 100-day average, volume over twice normal, customer orders up 40%, artificial intelligence work pushing sales higher, and a TV call for $200 drawing retail interest. It said a rebound could reach $160 to $170 within three months.

Inside the window, PLTR reached $190 on August 12, above the $185.42 target. The target was reached in 34 days, and the peak gain was 41.4%. It ended the window at $173.07. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On August 3, 2025, Palantir reported second-quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2025. Revenue grew 48% to $1.004 billion, customer count grew 43%, and the company raised its 2025 revenue guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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