Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from August 23, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 21, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$173.96 – $177.96Entry zone — fair-value band

$177.97Published — price the day we called it

$227.78Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$212.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$178.87Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 69% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$212.18

peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+19.2%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$178.87

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

August 23, 2025 – November 21, 2025

The thesis — published August 23, 2025

Predicted growth

+28%

over the measurement window

Target price

$227.78

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$173.96 – $177.96

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$177.97

published August 23, 2025

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVDA has pulled back inside a strong AI boom, which can set up a short-term rebound over the next 0-3 months if buying strength returns. Big cloud companies are still spending heavily and NVIDIA's steady product launches keep demand clear. Possible US plans to take small stakes in chip makers signal friendly policy. Consider buying after 2-3% dips and add only when buying strength clearly improves to limit valuation risk. This keeps interest high even as the price wobbles.

Primary drivers

Price pulled back but the long-running AI story remains strong.
Big cloud firms keep spending on data centers, with clear plans.
Government attention to chips likely helps suppliers and partners.
As a clear industry leader, pullbacks attract buyers quickly.

How it played out

NVDA: rebound peaked below target

Lyra published NVDA on 2025-08-23 at $177.97. The call expected 28% growth toward $227.78 over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a pullback inside a strong artificial intelligence boom, heavy cloud spending, steady product launches, possible friendly chip policy, and buyers returning quickly to an industry leader after dips.

Inside the window, the stock rose, but it did not reach the target. It peaked at $212.18 on 2025-10-29, with a 19.2% gain. It never got there. By 2025-11-21, NVDA ended at $178.87. The thesis partially played out: the rebound happened, but the target missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-27, Nvidia reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $46.74 billion and forecast fiscal third-quarter revenue of $54 billion. On 2025-11-19, Nvidia reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $57 billion, with data center revenue of $51.2 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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