Track record · closed signal

Porch Group, Inc. (PRCH) — closed signal from August 22, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 20, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PRCH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$15.20 – $16.40Entry zone — fair-value band

$15.80Published — price the day we called it

$20.54Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$19.44Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$9.11Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 77% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$19.44

peak on September 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+23%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$9.11

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

August 22, 2025 – November 20, 2025

The thesis — published August 22, 2025

Predicted growth

+30%

over the measurement window

Target price

$20.54

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$15.20 – $16.40

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$15.80

published August 22, 2025

Confidence

63%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Porch Group looks like a business turning the corner while interest builds. Buying activity appears higher than usual, and the recent average price is moving up. News showed Q2 sales beat expectations and 2025 guidance increased as its insurance and home-services software earn more. The stock can swing and underwriting adds risk, but dips may offer entries. If execution stays solid, a multi-week rally could extend from a low base, drawing momentum buyers.

Primary drivers

Buying demand looks stronger than usual, and the recent average price is rising.
Q2 results topped expectations, and management lifted its 2025 outlook.
If progress holds, more investors may notice the stock and add money to it.
Approach uses dip buys with clear risk limits, making entries more controlled.

How it played out

PRCH: the target was not reached

Lyra published PRCH at 15.8 on 2025-08-22 with a short-term thesis for 30% expected growth. The thesis pointed to stronger buying demand, a rising recent average price, Q2 results that topped expectations, higher 2025 guidance, and possible added investor attention if progress held. It also noted stock swings and underwriting risk.

Inside the 2025-08-22 to 2025-11-20 window, PRCH rose to a peak of 19.44 on 2025-09-22, a 23% gain. The target was 20.54. It never got there. By the end of the window, the stock was 9.11. The thesis partially played out at the peak, then missed by the close.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PRCH signals