Track record · closed signal

Kohl's Corporation (KSS) — closed signal from August 22, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 20, 2025 — +12.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

KSS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$13.31 Published $16.03 Target $14.92 Window close $18.65 Peak
$12.86 – $13.25Entry zone — fair-value band
$13.31Published — price the day we called it
$16.03Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$18.65Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.92Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 5 days.

At window close
+12.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+40.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$14.92
last close inside the window, ended November 20, 2025
Peak price
$18.65
peak on November 12, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
5

The thesis — published August 22, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$16.03
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.86 – $13.25
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$13.31
published August 22, 2025
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Kohl's looks like it is trying to recover from a weak period, and the upcoming earnings report could steer the next move. More buyers than usual and a rising recent average price suggest improving strength. If store traffic, discounts, and inventory are handled well, the stock could jump from a low level. News naming KSS a stock to watch adds attention around earnings, but headlines can swing it, so position sizing matters.

Primary drivers

  • More buyers than usual, and the recent average price is trending up
  • News highlights next week's earnings, pulling in extra attention
  • Better investor mood could spark a quick upward move
  • Shares sit low, so decent news could push the value higher

How it played out

KSS: target reached in 5 days

Lyra published KSS at $13.31 on 2025-08-22 with a short-term expectation for 22% growth. The thesis pointed to more buyers than usual, a rising recent average price, attention around the next earnings report, better investor mood, and a low share price that could react if news was decent.

Inside the 2025-08-22 to 2025-11-20 window, the stock reached the $16.03 target in 5 days. It later peaked at $18.65 on 2025-11-12, a 40.1% gain. It ended the window at $14.92. The thesis played out. The target was reached quickly, and the later peak went above it.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-27, Investopedia reported that Kohl's posted second-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.56, while revenue fell to $3.35 billion and comparable sales fell 4.2%. The company also raised its full-year adjusted earnings outlook to $0.50 to $0.80.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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