Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL) — closed signal from August 22, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 20, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 14 days.
The thesis — published August 22, 2025
Alphabet appears to be calming after a pullback, with signs sellers are losing steam. It still leads in online search and just landed a six-year, $10B cloud deal with Meta, boosting confidence in Google Cloud. The Fed hinted rate cuts may come, which helps growth stocks. Plan: buy near $200 and add only if price improves as AI and cloud momentum rebuild into Q4.
Primary drivers
- Short-term signs suggest sellers are tiring, raising chances of a near-term turn.
- $10B, six-year cloud agreement with Meta highlights demand and brand strength.
- Hints of rate cuts lower borrowing costs, which usually helps growth companies.
- Price firming above its recent average would signal stabilization is taking hold.
How it played out
GOOGL: target reached in 14 days
Lyra published GOOGL at 202.38 on 2025-08-22 with expected growth of 16%. The thesis pointed to a pullback that was calming, sellers losing steam, a six-year, $10B cloud agreement with Meta, hints of rate cuts, and renewed artificial intelligence and cloud momentum into Q4.
Inside the window, the stock reached the 234.39 target in 14 days. It kept rising after that and peaked at 306.22 on 2025-11-20, with a 51.3% peak gain. It ended the window at 289.26. The thesis played out, and the move went well past the target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-22, Reuters reported that Meta had signed a six-year cloud computing agreement with Google worth over $10 billion. On 2025-10-29, Alphabet reported quarterly revenue of $102.35 billion, its first quarter above $100 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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