Track record · closed signal

Honeywell International Inc. (HON) — closed signal from August 22, 2025

Missed Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 20, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

HON price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$220.49 Published $245.48 Target $188.14 Window close $208.93 Peak
$217.39 – $220.35Entry zone — fair-value band
$220.49Published — price the day we called it
$245.48Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$208.93Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$188.14Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Missed

Never rose above the publication price inside the window.

Peak price
$208.93
peak on August 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
-5.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$188.14
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 22, 2025 – November 20, 2025

The thesis — published August 22, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$245.48
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$217.39 – $220.35
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$220.49
published August 22, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Honeywell looks like a solid, steady grower with a clear plan to raise its worth. Recent trading shows more buying interest than usual and the price trend improving. The company confirmed it will spin off Solstice Advanced Materials, a unit with $3.8B in sales and $1.1B in profit before interest and other costs. With 2025 guidance unchanged, a slimmer company could focus better and earn a higher market value.

Primary drivers

  • Buying interest is picking up and the recent average price is rising.
  • Company formally moved ahead with the Solstice Advanced Materials spin-off.
  • Management kept its 2025 sales outlook steady, giving predictability.
  • Becoming a simpler company can highlight strengths and raise valuation.

How it played out

HON: the target was never reached

Lyra published HON at 220.49 on 2025-08-22 with expected growth of 12% and a target of 245.48. The thesis pointed to stronger buying interest, an improving price trend, the Solstice Advanced Materials spin-off, steady 2025 guidance, and a simpler company structure that could support a higher valuation.

Inside the window, HON never reached the target. Its peak was 208.93 on 2025-08-22, with a peak gain of -5.2%. It ended at 188.14 on 2025-11-20. The price stayed below both the publication price and the target. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On October 23, 2025, MarketWatch reported that Honeywell raised its 2025 earnings outlook ahead of the Solstice spin-off. On October 30, 2025, Barron's reported that Solstice Advanced Materials started trading on Nasdaq under SOLS.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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