Track record · closed signal

ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR) — closed signal from August 22, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 20, 2025 — -4.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ACMR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$31.00 Published $40.30 Target $29.67 Window close $45.12 Peak
$29.80 – $31.40Entry zone — fair-value band
$31.00Published — price the day we called it
$40.30Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$45.12Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$29.67Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 40 days.

At window close
-4.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+45.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$29.67
last close inside the window, ended November 20, 2025
Peak price
$45.12
peak on October 2, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
40

The thesis — published August 22, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$40.30
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$29.80 – $31.40
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$31.00
published August 22, 2025
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

ACM Research looks ready for a short-term rebound. The stock fell hard, but trading activity picked up and overall mood improved, even though one momentum gauge still lags. Recent news: profit per share beat expectations, sales were a bit light, and management lifted its long-term China sales goal to $2.5B. More big investors are buying. Policy headlines are a risk, but a 3 month recovery seems reasonable.

Primary drivers

  • Shares dropped a lot and heavy trading slowed, hinting sellers are tiring
  • Company lifted its long-term China sales goal, confirmed in recent news
  • More large investors are buying the stock, adding steady demand
  • Upside case improves if price climbs back above its recent average price

How it played out

ACMR: target reached in 40 days

Lyra published ACMR at $31 on 2025-08-22 with a short-term rebound thesis. It expected 30% growth to $40.30. The thesis pointed to a hard prior drop, heavier trading that had slowed, an improved mood, a lifted long-term China sales goal of $2.5B, more large investors buying, and a possible move back above its recent average price.

Inside the window, ACMR reached $45.12 on 2025-10-02, a 45.5% peak gain. It reached the target in 40 days. By 2025-11-20, it had fallen back to $29.67. The thesis played out, even though the window ended below the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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