Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from August 22, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 20, 2025 — -5.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$93.97 – $95.95Entry zone — fair-value band

$96.02Published — price the day we called it

$111.06Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$98.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$90.49Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 14% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-5.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+2.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$90.49

last close inside the window, ended November 20, 2025

Peak price

$98.22

peak on November 12, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published August 22, 2025

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$111.06

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$93.97 – $95.95

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$96.02

published August 22, 2025

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab looks heavily sold off, which often leads to a short-term rebound. Investor interest and new money remain solid, with net new assets up 17% from last month. If the Fed cuts rates, pressure on interest income should ease and margins can normalize. That makes a move back toward typical recent prices reasonable. Plan is to buy gradually on dips as momentum steadies and the trend starts improving.

Primary drivers

The stock looks very oversold, suggesting many sellers may be finished
Net new assets rose 17% from last month, signaling healthy new money
If the Fed cuts rates, investors may value earnings more generously
Add if momentum steadies and price moves above its recent average

How it played out

SCHW: the target was not reached

Lyra published SCHW at 96.02 on 2025-08-22 with a short-term thesis for 16% expected growth toward 111.06. The thesis pointed to an oversold stock, net new assets up 17% from last month, possible rate-cut relief for interest income, and a plan to add only if momentum steadied.

Inside the window, SCHW peaked at 98.22 on 2025-11-12, a 2.3% gain. It stayed below the target. By 2025-11-20, it ended at 90.49. The thesis only partly played out on price, with a small rebound but no target reach.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-16, Schwab reported third-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of $1.31 per share and revenue of $6.1 billion. On 2025-11-14, Barron's reported Schwab's October core net new assets of $44.4 billion and total client assets of $11.83 trillion at month end.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals