The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from August 22, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 20, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 14% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published August 22, 2025
Schwab looks heavily sold off, which often leads to a short-term rebound. Investor interest and new money remain solid, with net new assets up 17% from last month. If the Fed cuts rates, pressure on interest income should ease and margins can normalize. That makes a move back toward typical recent prices reasonable. Plan is to buy gradually on dips as momentum steadies and the trend starts improving.
Primary drivers
- The stock looks very oversold, suggesting many sellers may be finished
- Net new assets rose 17% from last month, signaling healthy new money
- If the Fed cuts rates, investors may value earnings more generously
- Add if momentum steadies and price moves above its recent average
How it played out
SCHW: the target was not reached
Lyra published SCHW at 96.02 on 2025-08-22 with a short-term thesis for 16% expected growth toward 111.06. The thesis pointed to an oversold stock, net new assets up 17% from last month, possible rate-cut relief for interest income, and a plan to add only if momentum steadied.
Inside the window, SCHW peaked at 98.22 on 2025-11-12, a 2.3% gain. It stayed below the target. By 2025-11-20, it ended at 90.49. The thesis only partly played out on price, with a small rebound but no target reach.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, Schwab reported third-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of $1.31 per share and revenue of $6.1 billion. On 2025-11-14, Barron's reported Schwab's October core net new assets of $44.4 billion and total client assets of $11.83 trillion at month end.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Share this receipt
A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.