The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from August 21, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 19, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 27% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published August 21, 2025
Schwab's stock looks beaten down even while its business trends improve. Q2 sales rose 24.8%, and customers added 17% more new assets than last month, showing strong money coming in. Over the next 0-3 months, consider buying in small steps on dips and add if buying interest firms up as rate swings calm. Note that profits tied to interest and client trading can still make the stock move.
Primary drivers
- Price looks beaten down after a sharp slide, which may set up a rebound soon
- Q2 sales rose 24.8% from last year, a clear sign of improving business health
- Customers added 17% more new assets than last month, a strong and steady pace
- Many large professional investors own shares, which can help steady trading
How it played out
SCHW: thesis missed the target
On Aug 21, Lyra published a short-term SCHW thesis at $95.09, with 12% expected growth and a $106.20 target. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down price after a sharp slide, Q2 sales up 24.8%, customers adding 17% more new assets than last month, and large professional ownership as possible support for trading.
Inside the window from Aug 21 to Nov 19, SCHW peaked at $98.22 on Nov 12, a 3.3% gain. It stayed below the $106.20 target, so there was no day to target. It ended at $92.64. The thesis missed.
What happened during the window
On Oct. 16, 2025, The Wall Street Journal reported that Schwab posted third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.31 a share and revenue of $6.14 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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