Track record · closed signal

Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) — closed signal from August 21, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 19, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

FIVE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$137.84 Published $165.40 Target $148.35 Window close $168.98 Peak
$136.00 – $138.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$137.84Published — price the day we called it
$165.40Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$168.98Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$148.35Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 67 days.

Peak price
$168.98
peak on October 27, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+22.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$148.35
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
67
Window
August 21, 2025 – November 19, 2025

The thesis — published August 21, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$165.40
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$136.00 – $138.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$137.84
published August 21, 2025
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

This looks like a short-term trade around the upcoming Q2 update. The price trend has improved, many investors feel positive, and Wall Street expects higher sales and profits. But after a 64 percent climb since November, the bar is high. Consider starting near the recent average price range, use smaller amounts before earnings, and add only if results show steady store visits, solid sales levels, and healthy profit margins.

Primary drivers

  • Investor mood is very positive, and the chart looks healthier than before.
  • Recent trend is turning upward, with lots more people buying than usual.
  • Analysts expect higher sales and profits in Q2, which could lift the stock.
  • After a 64 percent climb since November, expectations and event risk are higher.

How it played out

FIVE: target reached in 67 days

Lyra published FIVE as a short-term trade at $137.84, with expected growth of 20 percent and a target of $165.40. The thesis pointed to improved price trend, positive investor mood, heavier buying, and expected higher Q2 sales and profits. It also flagged that the stock had already climbed 64 percent since November, so expectations were high.

Inside the window, FIVE reached a peak of $168.98 on 2025-10-27. That was above the target, with a peak gain of 22.6 percent. The target was reached in 67 days. By 2025-11-19, the stock ended at $148.35. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-17, CT Insider reported that Five Below listed a new Hamden, Connecticut store opening for 2025-11-21. The article said the company had 28 stores in Connecticut and a goal of opening 150 stores by the end of fiscal year 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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