Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) — closed signal from August 21, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 19, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 33 days.
The thesis — published August 21, 2025
Caterpillar looks like a solid cyclical business that may still be on sale. Our cash-flow estimate says the stock is about 18% below fair value even after a strong year. In the next 0-3 months, consider buying near the lower end of its recent trading range and add if signs show buyers are returning. Ongoing infrastructure and mining projects support demand, but a weaker economy and pricing pressure mean position size should stay modest.
Primary drivers
- Cash-flow valuation points to about 18% undervalued versus fair price today.
- Near-term weakness suggests a setup as buyers may step in at recent lows.
- Large project backlog and infrastructure work keep orders and revenue supported.
- If the economy slows, pricing and demand could fade, so keep positions smaller.
How it played out
CAT: target reached in 33 days
Lyra published CAT at $414.69 on 2025-08-21, with 14% expected growth and a $471.39 target. The thesis pointed to cash-flow valuation about 18% below fair value, buyers returning near recent lows, large project backlog, infrastructure work, and the risk that a weaker economy could hurt pricing and demand.
Inside the window, CAT reached the target in 33 days. It later peaked at $596.21 on 2025-10-29, for a 43.8% peak gain. The stock ended the window at $553.11. The thesis played out and then went beyond its target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-29, Caterpillar reported third-quarter results. Reported revenue was $17.64 billion, and adjusted earnings were $4.95 per share. MarketWatch reported the same day that Caterpillar's backlog reached $39.8 billion after rising by $11.2 billion from a year earlier.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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