Track record · closed signal

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) — closed signal from August 21, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 19, 2025 — +33.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CAT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$409.64 – $413.62Entry zone — fair-value band

$414.69Published — price the day we called it

$471.39Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$596.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$553.11Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 33 days.

At window close

+33.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+43.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$553.11

last close inside the window, ended November 19, 2025

Peak price

$596.21

peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published August 21, 2025

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$471.39

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$409.64 – $413.62

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$414.69

published August 21, 2025

Confidence

64%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Caterpillar looks like a solid cyclical business that may still be on sale. Our cash-flow estimate says the stock is about 18% below fair value even after a strong year. In the next 0-3 months, consider buying near the lower end of its recent trading range and add if signs show buyers are returning. Ongoing infrastructure and mining projects support demand, but a weaker economy and pricing pressure mean position size should stay modest.

Primary drivers

Cash-flow valuation points to about 18% undervalued versus fair price today.
Near-term weakness suggests a setup as buyers may step in at recent lows.
Large project backlog and infrastructure work keep orders and revenue supported.
If the economy slows, pricing and demand could fade, so keep positions smaller.

How it played out

CAT: target reached in 33 days

Lyra published CAT at $414.69 on 2025-08-21, with 14% expected growth and a $471.39 target. The thesis pointed to cash-flow valuation about 18% below fair value, buyers returning near recent lows, large project backlog, infrastructure work, and the risk that a weaker economy could hurt pricing and demand.

Inside the window, CAT reached the target in 33 days. It later peaked at $596.21 on 2025-10-29, for a 43.8% peak gain. The stock ended the window at $553.11. The thesis played out and then went beyond its target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-29, Caterpillar reported third-quarter results. Reported revenue was $17.64 billion, and adjusted earnings were $4.95 per share. MarketWatch reported the same day that Caterpillar's backlog reached $39.8 billion after rising by $11.2 billion from a year earlier.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CAT signals