Track record · closed signal

Skechers U.S.A., Inc. (SKX) — closed signal from August 21, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 19, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

SKX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$62.95 Published $74.28 Target $63.13 Window close $63.37 Peak
$62.00 – $63.20Entry zone — fair-value band
$62.95Published — price the day we called it
$74.28Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$63.37Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$63.13Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 4% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$63.37
peak on September 11, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+0.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$63.13
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 21, 2025 – November 19, 2025

The thesis — published August 21, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$74.28
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$62.00 – $63.20
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$62.95
published August 21, 2025
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Skechers' share price has fallen a lot, while interest from big investors is improving. Being named on a widely followed Goldman Sachs list and having a Buy rating versus Nike's Sell suggest Skechers may be gaining ground. New golf deals keep the brand visible. Over the next few months, consider buying on dips and adding if price strength returns, while staying mindful of softer demand and heavy discounting.

Primary drivers

  • Named to a top holdings list at Goldman Sachs, boosting visibility
  • Ratings favor Skechers over Nike, hinting at improving standing
  • Shares dropped hard recently, setting up for a possible rebound
  • New sports sponsorships are raising awareness of the brand

How it played out

SKX: rebound thesis stayed below target

Lyra published SKX at $62.95 on 2025-08-21, with 18% expected growth and a $74.28 target. The thesis pointed to better big-investor interest, Goldman Sachs list visibility, ratings that favored Skechers over Nike, a recent share-price drop that could allow a rebound, and new sports sponsorships that kept the brand visible.

Inside the window, the stock rose only slightly. It peaked at $63.37 on 2025-09-11, a 0.7% gain, and stayed below the $74.28 target. It ended at $63.13 on 2025-11-19. The rebound call partially played out, but the full thesis missed. It never got there.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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