Track record · closed signal

Kanzhun Limited (BOSS Zhipin) (BZ) — closed signal from August 21, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 19, 2025 — -9.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BZ price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$22.58 – $23.17Entry zone — fair-value band

$23.28Published — price the day we called it

$29.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$25.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$21.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 28% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-9.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$21.00

last close inside the window, ended November 19, 2025

Peak price

$25.08

peak on September 16, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published August 21, 2025

Predicted growth

+28%

over the measurement window

Target price

$29.59

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$22.58 – $23.17

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$23.28

published August 21, 2025

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Shares jumped on much heavier trading after the company beat profit expectations, started its first dividend, and increased its share buyback - clear signs management is confident. Buyer interest remains strong. China policy and market rules still add risk, so consider buying dips near the recent average price over the next 0-3 months as user growth and hiring recover, with dividends and buybacks helping hold the price up.

Primary drivers

Profit per share beat expectations even though sales came in a bit light
Company announced its first-ever cash dividend, sharing profits with investors
Share repurchase plan increased to $250M, likely lowering share count over time
Much heavier-than-usual trading on the jump points to strong buying interest

How it played out

BZ: the thesis stayed below target

Lyra published BZ at $23.28 on 2025-08-21 with expected growth of 28%. The thesis pointed to a profit per share beat despite lighter sales, a first cash dividend, a share repurchase plan increased to $250M, and much heavier trading that suggested strong buying interest. It also noted China policy and market-rule risk.

Inside the window, BZ peaked at $25.08 on 2025-09-16, a 7.8% gain. That stayed below the $29.59 target, and the target was never reached. By 2025-11-19, the stock ended at $21. The thesis partially played out in price, but it missed the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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