Track record · closed signal

UP Fintech Holding Limited (Tiger Brokers) (TIGR) — closed signal from August 21, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 19, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TIGR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$10.91 Published $14.73 Target $8.13 Window close $13.55 Peak
$10.60 – $11.05Entry zone — fair-value band
$10.91Published — price the day we called it
$14.73Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$13.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$8.13Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 69% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$13.55
peak on August 25, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+24.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$8.13
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 21, 2025 – November 19, 2025

The thesis — published August 21, 2025

Predicted growth
+35%
over the measurement window
Target price
$14.73
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$10.60 – $11.05
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$10.91
published August 21, 2025
Confidence
95%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Earnings on Aug 27 could spark more trading on TIGR's platform. The stock has been climbing, with lots more people buying than usual. Citi lifted its target to $14, adding confidence. New Hong Kong rules for digital coins may attract more customers and activity, which can lift fees and interest income. As a recent strong performer, it may keep drifting up; buying dips can help manage China, liquidity, and policy risks.

Primary drivers

  • Aug 27 earnings could spark near-term interest and revenue growth
  • Citi's $14 target shows increased confidence in future results
  • HK crypto rules may bring more traders and higher platform use
  • Climbing price with heavier buying supports the current uptrend

How it played out

TIGR: target was not reached

Lyra published TIGR at $10.91 on Aug. 21, with expected growth of 35% and a target of $14.73. The thesis pointed to Aug. 27 earnings, heavier buying, Citi's $14 target, Hong Kong digital-coin rules, and the idea that recent strength could keep the stock moving up.

Inside the window, TIGR rose to $13.55 on Aug. 25, a 24.2% peak gain. That was below the target. It never got there. By Nov. 19, the stock ended at $8.13. The thesis partly played out early, then missed the full target and finished below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On Aug. 27, UP Fintech reported second-quarter earnings per share of nearly $0.23 and revenue of $138.7 million, according to Investor's Business Daily. The same report said the company added 39,800 new customers in the second quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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