Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD) — closed signal from July 4, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 2, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 18% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 4, 2025
Shares have dropped about 20 percent since spring, which several trading gauges say is unusually steep. Deutsche Bank just told clients they see good value here, and a company earnings model points to profit coming in about 9 percent higher than Wall Street expects next month. Management is selling more high-end beers, but the trend is still shaky. If the price can stay near 68-69 dollars, it could rebound toward 79-80 within three months, yet we first need to see the stock start to make slightly higher lows.
Primary drivers
- Very low momentum readings hint that selling may be nearly exhausted.
- Deutsche Bank call-out highlights share price now looks cheap vs its value.
- Modelled earnings could beat forecasts by 9 percent, lifting the stock.
- Shifting mix to pricier beers can raise profit per bottle as volumes steady.
How it played out
BUD: target was not reached
Lyra published BUD at $68.77 on 2025-07-04. The thesis expected 15% growth and a rebound toward $78.93. It pointed to very low momentum readings, a Deutsche Bank value call-out, modelled earnings that could beat forecasts by 9%, and a mix shift toward pricier beers. It also said the stock first needed to make slightly higher lows.
Inside the window, BUD peaked at $70.60 on 2025-07-24, with a 2.7% gain. That stayed below the $78.93 target. It never got there. By 2025-10-02, the stock ended at $59.94. The thesis missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-07-31, AB InBev reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.98 on $15.00 billion in revenue, according to Investopedia. The same report said total volume was down 1.9%.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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