Track record · closed signal

Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) — closed signal from August 19, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 17, 2025 — -14.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

OBDC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$13.47 Published $13.96 Target $11.52 Window close $13.63 Peak
$12.57 – $12.84Entry zone — fair-value band
$13.47Published — price the day we called it
$13.96Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$13.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$11.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 12% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-14.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+1.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$11.52
last close inside the window, ended November 17, 2025
Peak price
$13.63
peak on September 5, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published August 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$13.96
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.57 – $12.84
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$13.47
published August 19, 2025
Confidence
92%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

OBDC looks ready for a bounce after a sharp selloff. Several signs point to buyers stepping back in soon, and overall mood is very positive. Q2 profit of $0.40 per share topped forecasts. Blue Owl also helped fund Meta's $29B AI build, showing strong access to big deals. If buying strength continues, the price could drift back toward the top of its recent range over the next 0-3 months, helped by steady income from lending.

Primary drivers

  • Shares look washed out and now appear to be turning upward after heavy selling
  • Q2 profit per share of $0.40 beat expectations, showing steady execution
  • Role in Meta's $29B AI project signals strong access to future lending deals
  • Positive mood and steady income from lending support near-term total return

How it played out

OBDC: target missed after a brief bounce

Lyra published OBDC at $13.47 on 2025-08-19. The thesis expected 10% growth over a short-term window, with a move toward $13.96. It pointed to a washed-out setup after heavy selling, Q2 profit per share of $0.40, Blue Owl's role in a large artificial intelligence funding deal, positive mood, and steady lending income.

Inside the window, OBDC rose only to $13.63 on 2025-09-05, a 1.2% peak gain. It stayed below the $13.96 target and never reached it. By 2025-11-17, it ended at $11.52. The bounce was brief. The thesis partially played out early, then missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-23, MarketWatch reported that Meta and Blue Owl had entered a $27 billion private-credit joint venture for the Hyperion data-center campus in Louisiana. The report said funds managed by Blue Owl would own 80%, while Meta would hold 20%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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