Track record · closed signal

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) — closed signal from August 19, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 17, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

FND price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$84.50 Published $99.71 Target $56.79 Window close $92.41 Peak
$83.50 – $85.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$84.50Published — price the day we called it
$99.71Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$92.41Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$56.79Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 52% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$92.41
peak on September 17, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+9.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$56.79
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 19, 2025 – November 17, 2025

The thesis — published August 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$99.71
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$83.50 – $85.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$84.50
published August 19, 2025
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Floor & Decor looks like a short-term recovery idea. Recent price action and lots more people buying than usual suggest the stock may be turning up after a weak stretch. A new store opening in Chandler, AZ and better programs for professional contractors can boost traffic as housing steadies. The plan is to buy on dips and only add if the price starts stepping higher, aiming for a 0-3 month move back toward earlier ranges.

Primary drivers

  • Price trend and stronger buying interest point to momentum turning upward
  • New Chandler, AZ store could add fresh foot traffic and lift near-term sales
  • Investor mood is upbeat even while recent business results are only fair
  • Strategy favors buying dips if the price keeps making gradually higher steps

How it played out

FND: target was not reached

Lyra published FND at $84.50 on 2025-08-19 as a short-term recovery idea with expected growth of 18%. The thesis pointed to price trend, stronger buying interest, a new Chandler, AZ store, upbeat investor mood, and a dip-buying plan if the price kept making higher steps.

Inside the window, FND rose to $92.41 on 2025-09-17, a 9.4% peak gain. That stayed below the $99.71 target, so the target was never reached. By 2025-11-17, the stock ended at $56.79. The thesis partly played out early, then missed the full move it expected.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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