Track record · closed signal

Honeywell International Inc. (HON) — closed signal from August 19, 2025

Missed Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 17, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

HON price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$215.61 Published $240.05 Target $196.08 Window close $208.93 Peak
$212.45 – $215.41Entry zone — fair-value band
$215.61Published — price the day we called it
$240.05Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$208.93Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$196.08Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Missed

Never rose above the publication price inside the window.

Peak price
$208.93
peak on August 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
-3.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$196.08
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 19, 2025 – November 17, 2025

The thesis — published August 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$240.05
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$212.45 – $215.41
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$215.61
published August 19, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Honeywell looks temporarily beaten down, which can set up a near-term bounce. Short-term readings point to a recovery, and investor mood is positive even if recent momentum has been soft. Growing needs for flight systems and video analytics help its aerospace and automation units. Consider buying in steps near this range and add only if price strength returns, aiming for a move toward its recent average price in 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Pulled back but quality business likely to steady and recover soon
  • Tied to aerospace and factory automation with steady demand trends
  • Investor mood is positive even though recent momentum has been weak
  • Buy in steps and add only if price action clearly improves

How it played out

HON: the thesis did not play out

Lyra published HON at $215.61 on 2025-08-19, with 12% expected growth and a target of $240.05. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down quality business that could steady and recover, tied to aerospace and factory automation demand. It also pointed to positive investor mood despite weak recent momentum.

Inside the window, HON never reached the target. Its peak was $208.93 on 2025-08-22, with a peak gain of -3.1%. The window ended on 2025-11-17 at $196.08. The expected bounce did not arrive in the measured period. This was a miss.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-23, MarketWatch reported that Honeywell raised its 2025 earnings outlook after third-quarter results. The same report said Solstice Advanced Materials was set to become an independent public company on 2025-10-30.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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