Track record · closed signal

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) — closed signal from July 4, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 2, 2025 — +21.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ORCL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$222.28 – $230.22Entry zone — fair-value band

$236.41Published — price the day we called it

$266.11Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$345.12Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$288.28Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 68 days.

At window close

+21.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+46%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$288.28

last close inside the window, ended October 2, 2025

Peak price

$345.12

peak on September 10, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 4, 2025

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$266.11

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$222.28 – $230.22

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$236.41

published July 4, 2025

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Oracle jumped 40% after landing the OpenAI 'Stargate' cloud deal. Each rally this year has cooled to about $224-$232, the recent average price zone, before climbing again. Broker TD Cowen now sees the stock at $275, pointing to possible 2029 sales of $150 B. Trading signals show buyers still dominate, and heavy volume hints at strong demand. We expect a normal 5-8% pullback toward $224-$232, then a move to roughly $265 as higher forecasts roll in over the next three months.

Primary drivers

OpenAI deal should bring steady, high-profit cloud income for many years.
Broker TD Cowen raised its goal to $275, likely prompting more earnings boosts.
Strong buying momentum shows the uptrend is healthy and still drawing interest.
Each pullback to the recent average price has led to about 12% gains in 2 months.

How it played out

ORCL: target reached in 68 days

Lyra published ORCL at $236.41 on 2025-07-04 with expected growth of 13%. The thesis looked for a normal 5-8% pullback toward $224-$232, then a move to roughly $265 over the next three months. It pointed to a large cloud deal, TD Cowen's $275 view, possible 2029 sales of $150 B, strong buying momentum, and heavy volume.

Inside the window, ORCL reached the $266.11 target in 68 days. The peak was $345.12 on 2025-09-10, a 46% gain. It ended the window at $288.28. The thesis played out and then went further than the target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-09-10, The Verge reported a large cloud contract tied to Project Stargate. On 2025-09-22, Investopedia reported that Oracle named Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia as co-CEOs, with Safra Catz moving to executive vice chair.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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