Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) — closed signal from August 18, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 16, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$46.76 Published $51.81 Target $52.34 Window close $54.41 Peak
$45.76 – $46.74Entry zone — fair-value band
$46.76Published — price the day we called it
$51.81Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$54.41Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$52.34Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 32 days.

Peak price
$54.41
peak on November 12, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+16.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$52.34
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
32
Window
August 18, 2025 – November 16, 2025

The thesis — published August 18, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$51.81
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$45.76 – $46.74
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$46.76
published August 18, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Bank of America may offer a short-term trade because the price trend seems to be turning up and lots more people are buying than usual. A Nov 5 Investor Day gives a date when leaders will share plans, though news that Berkshire sold some shares could hurt sentiment. Over the next few months, steady rates and stable credit could help the stock drift back toward typical levels, with tight risk controls.

Primary drivers

  • Momentum has turned upward, with more buyers stepping in than before
  • Steady interest rates help the bank earn more between loans and deposits
  • Nov 5 Investor Day could draw attention and provide clearer plans
  • Potential buying from big investment funds moving into large banks

How it played out

BAC: target reached in 32 days

Lyra published BAC at $46.76 on 2025-08-18 for a short-term window ending 2025-11-16. The thesis expected 12% growth toward $51.81. It pointed to upward momentum, more buyers stepping in, steady interest rates, the Nov 5 Investor Day, and possible buying from big investment funds moving into large banks.

Inside the window, BAC reached the target in 32 days. The stock later peaked at $54.41 on 2025-11-12, a 16.4% gain. It ended the window at $52.34, still above the target. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On Oct 15, 2025, Bank of America reported third-quarter profit and revenue above forecasts. On Nov 5, 2025, MarketWatch reported that Bank of America lifted its long-term profit outlook during its investor day.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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