The Walt Disney Company (DIS) — closed signal from August 18, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 16, 2025 — -9.4% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 14% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published August 18, 2025
Disney looks sold off and could bounce because its famous characters still attract fans. A recent drop versus its recent average price suggests a careful, short-term plan. New brand moves, like a Disney Villains line at Bath and Body Works on 9/3 and momentum around Stan Lee items, add interest. Sentiment is upbeat even if results are softer, so a 3 month trade aims to move back toward typical levels.
Primary drivers
- Famous characters and stories turned into new products, shows, and deals
- The stock looks beaten down and could recover soon as buyer interest builds
- Fresh tie-ups like retail and licensing deals can push sales and buzz
- Theme parks and licensing keep bringing in steady cash to fund growth
How it played out
DIS: target was not reached
Lyra published DIS at 115.99 on 2025-08-18 with a short-term view and expected growth of 18%. The thesis pointed to Disney's characters and stories, possible recovery after a selloff, retail and licensing tie-ups, and theme parks and licensing as steady cash sources.
Inside the window from 2025-08-18 to 2025-11-16, DIS peaked at 118.98 on 2025-09-05, a 2.6% gain. It stayed below the 135.95 target. The stock ended at 105.09. The thesis missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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