Track record · closed signal

Citigroup Inc. (C) — closed signal from August 18, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 16, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

C price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$91.90 – $93.88Entry zone — fair-value band

$93.61Published — price the day we called it

$104.22Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$104.96Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$100.30Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 36 days.

Peak price

$104.96

peak on September 23, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+12.1%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$100.30

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

August 18, 2025 – November 16, 2025

The thesis — published August 18, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$104.22

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$91.90 – $93.88

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$93.61

published August 18, 2025

Confidence

60%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Citigroup's recovery seems to be taking hold, and the share price has dropped so much that a rebound is possible. The recent average price is edging up, though one momentum gauge is slower. The new banking head is hiring talent, and Oppenheimer lifted its target to 124 after a strong Q2. Over 3 months, better deal flow and delivery could help, but the economy and credit losses are risks.

Primary drivers

Turnaround strengthened by hiring experienced leaders to speed growth
Share price fell hard; early buying hints at a possible rebound
Major bank raised its target to 124, improving market confidence
Investment banking deal pipeline is improving, boosting revenue hopes

How it played out

C: target reached in 36 days

Lyra published C on Aug. 18 at $93.61 with 12% expected growth and a $104.22 target. The thesis pointed to a turnaround helped by experienced hires, a hard share-price fall with early buying, Oppenheimer's target lift to 124, and a better investment banking deal pipeline. It also named the economy and credit losses as risks.

Inside the window, C reached $104.96 on Sept. 23. That was a 12.1% peak gain, and it reached the target in 36 days. The signal ended at $100.30 on Nov. 16, below the peak but above the publication price. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On Oct. 14, Financial News reported Citi's third-quarter results. Markets revenue was $5.6 billion, investment banking revenue was $1.2 billion, and net income was $3.8 billion. On Oct. 13, MarketWatch reported Citi had booked $726 million in expenses tied to the sale of a 25% stake in Banamex.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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