Track record · closed signal

Dayforce Inc. (DAY) — closed signal from August 18, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 16, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

DAY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$66.00 – $68.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$67.39Published — price the day we called it

$90.97Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$69.85Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$69.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 11% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$69.85

peak on August 28, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+3.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$69.00

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

August 18, 2025 – November 16, 2025

The thesis — published August 18, 2025

Predicted growth

+35%

over the measurement window

Target price

$90.97

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$66.00 – $68.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$67.39

published August 18, 2025

Confidence

61%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Reports that private equity firm Thoma Bravo might buy Dayforce pushed the stock up over 24% on Aug 18. This is a news-driven situation with sharp price swings. The recent average price and buying interest are very strong, so entries should be careful and spread out. If talks get formal, the story could have another run. Over the next 3 months, we aim to ride any follow-on gains while keeping risk tight because the core business metrics look weak.

Primary drivers

Buyout rumors are the main driver, drawing fresh attention to the stock.
Very strong recent price strength signals intense buyer interest.
Payroll and HR tools are hard to switch away from, keeping customers loyal.
Far more trading than usual suggests real interest, not just a quick pop.

How it played out

DAY: the target was never reached

Lyra published DAY at 67.39 on 2025-08-18 with 35% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to buyout rumors around Thoma Bravo, very strong recent price strength, sticky payroll and HR tools, and far more trading than usual. It also warned that the setup was news-driven and could swing sharply.

Inside the window, DAY peaked at 69.85 on 2025-08-28, a 3.7% gain. That stayed below the 90.97 target, so there was no day when the target was reached. The stock ended the window at 69. The thesis only partially played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-18, MarketWatch reported that Dayforce shares rose after reports that Thoma Bravo might buy the company. On 2025-08-20, WSJ reported that Dayforce had confirmed advanced talks with Thoma Bravo, with no assurance that a deal would happen.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All DAY signals