Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from August 18, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 16, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$182.52 Published $222.65 Target $190.16 Window close $212.18 Peak
$177.96 – $183.96Entry zone — fair-value band
$182.52Published — price the day we called it
$222.65Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$212.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$190.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 74% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$212.18
peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+16.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$190.16
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 18, 2025 – November 16, 2025

The thesis — published August 18, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$222.65
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$177.96 – $183.96
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$182.52
published August 18, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is still the go-to name for AI chips. The stock recently fell and may rebound, and trading shows lots more people are buying than usual. With little new company news this week, short-term moves may follow trading behavior. Over the next three months, ongoing AI rollouts and its strong software tools could help shares work back toward prior price ranges, with a clear plan for buying and managing risk.

Primary drivers

  • Top maker of chips that power AI worldwide, giving it a strong lead over rivals.
  • More buyers than usual after a pullback, hinting at a short-term rebound.
  • Its CUDA tools keep developers loyal, making rivals hard to switch to.
  • As supply catches up, sales can normalize and the stock can recover.

How it played out

NVDA: rebound fell short of target

Lyra published NVDA at 182.52 on 2025-08-18 with expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to NVIDIA's lead in chips for artificial intelligence, heavier buying after a pullback, developer loyalty around CUDA, and supply catching up enough for sales to normalize. It expected the stock to work back toward 222.65 over the short-term window.

Inside the window, NVDA rose but did not reach the target. The peak was 212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 16.2% gain. It never got to 222.65. By 2025-11-16, the stock ended at 190.16. The thesis partly played out because the rebound happened, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-27, NVIDIA reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $46.7 billion and data center revenue of $41.1 billion. On 2025-09-18, NVIDIA announced a $5 billion investment in Intel tied to joint data-center and PC chip development.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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