Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from July 4, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 2, 2025 — +39.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$128.00 – $136.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$134.36Published — price the day we called it

$174.67Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$190.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$187.05Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 32 days.

At window close

+39.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+41.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$187.05

last close inside the window, ended October 2, 2025

Peak price

$190.00

peak on August 12, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 4, 2025

Predicted growth

+30%

over the measurement window

Target price

$174.67

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$128.00 – $136.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$134.36

published July 4, 2025

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir’s share price has fallen 23% since June and is now sitting in the $128-136 range where buyers have stepped in before. Trading activity was more than double a normal day, suggesting many investors picked up shares while others were selling. New deals for its Apollo software, talk of NATO using its AI, and a high-profile TV mention have kept enthusiasm very high. We think the stock could bounce back to about $165 within three months. Our view assumes hype stays strong and deals get signed.

Primary drivers

Weak recent momentum paired with improving price moves hints at a 70% rebound chance.
Trading volume was more than double normal, hinting that strong hands bought the dip.
Renewed Apollo deal plus possible NATO work could open fresh sales to defense clients.
TV mention keeps spirits high and draws extra interest from everyday investors.

How it played out

PLTR: target reached in 32 days

Lyra published PLTR at $134.36 on 2025-07-04, with 30% expected growth and a $174.67 target. The thesis pointed to the stock sitting in the $128-136 range, trading activity at more than double normal, Apollo deal interest, possible NATO work, and a TV mention that kept investor interest high.

Inside the window, PLTR reached the target in 32 days. The peak was $190 on 2025-08-12, with a 41.4% peak gain. The stock ended the window at $187.05. The published thesis played out. It reached the target and stayed above it at the end.

What happened during the window

On 2025-07-31, the U.S. Army awarded Palantir an enterprise agreement valued at up to $10 billion over 10 years. On 2025-08-04, Palantir reported second-quarter revenue of $1 billion and raised its full-year revenue guidance to $4.14 billion to $4.15 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PLTR signals