Track record · closed signal

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) — closed signal from August 18, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 16, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

LITE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$116.95 Published $150.87 Target $232.15 Window close $273.89 Peak
$115.00 – $118.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$116.95Published — price the day we called it
$150.87Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$273.89Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$232.15Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 18 days.

Peak price
$273.89
peak on November 10, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+134.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$232.15
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
18
Window
August 18, 2025 – November 16, 2025

The thesis — published August 18, 2025

Predicted growth
+29%
over the measurement window
Target price
$150.87
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$115.00 – $118.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$116.95
published August 18, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lumentum looks set for a short-term recovery after a sharp pullback. Sales rose 21 percent in FY25 and profit per share beat expectations, and Bank of America lifted its target to 135 on Aug 16. Trading signs suggest more buyers are stepping in than usual and the recent average price is turning up. With interest in optics steadying, a 3 month plan aims to catch an early revaluation while staying mindful of post-earnings ups and downs.

Primary drivers

  • FY25 sales up 21 percent; profit per share beat estimates, lifting views
  • Recent drop, but recent average price is turning up; could see a bounce
  • 3D sensing and data center networking demand looks steadier this year
  • Bank of America raised price target to 135, adding positive attention

How it played out

LITE: target reached in 18 days

Lyra published LITE on 2025-08-18 at 116.95. The thesis expected 29% growth toward 150.87. It pointed to FY25 sales up 21 percent, profit per share above expectations, a recent pullback with the average price turning up, steadier 3D sensing and data center networking demand, and a Bank of America target lift to 135.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 18 days. It kept rising to 273.89 on 2025-11-10, with a peak gain of 134.2%. It ended the window at 232.15. The published thesis played out, and the move went well past the target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-05, Investor's Business Daily reported that Lumentum's fiscal first-quarter earnings and revenue beat Wall Street targets. The same report said the company's revenue guidance was above expectations.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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