The Coca-Cola Company (KO) — closed signal from July 3, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 1, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 6% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 3, 2025
On 3 Jul, Morgan Stanley kept its $81 price goal, saying Coca-Cola can keep raising prices because people still buy its drinks. Trading shows lots more buyers than usual, and the stock trades at 22 times earnings, a little cheaper than its five-year norm of 24. The 3.1% dividend pays you to wait, and because the shares usually swing less than the market, a move to $78-79 (about 9% up) in the next three months seems reasonable.
Primary drivers
- On 3 Jul, Morgan Stanley kept its $81 goal, saying Coke can keep lifting prices.
- Recent trading shows many new buyers, hinting at improving momentum.
- Shares trade at 22 times earnings, slightly cheaper than their 5-year average.
- A 3.1% dividend draws cautious investors during unsettled summer markets.
How it played out
KO: the thesis did not reach its target
Lyra published KO at $70.31 on 2025-07-03 with a short-term thesis for about 9% growth. The thesis pointed to Morgan Stanley keeping an $81 goal, stronger buyer activity, shares at 22 times earnings versus a 24 five-year norm, and a 3.1% dividend. It expected a move toward $78-79 over the next three months, with $75.53 as the measured target.
Inside the window, KO peaked at $70.67 on 2025-08-20, a 0.5% gain. It stayed below the $75.53 target and never reached it. By 2025-10-01, it ended at $66.31. The thesis missed.
What happened during the window
On July 22, 2025, Coca-Cola reported second quarter 2025 results and updated full-year guidance. The release said unit case volume declined 1%, net revenues grew 1%, and organic revenues grew 5%. It also said the company planned to launch a U.S. cane sugar offering in the fall.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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