Track record · closed signal

Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) — closed signal from August 18, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 16, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

OBDC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$13.35 Published $14.10 Target $11.55 Window close $13.63 Peak
$12.44 – $12.70Entry zone — fair-value band
$13.35Published — price the day we called it
$14.10Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$13.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$11.55Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 17% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$13.63
peak on September 5, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$11.55
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 18, 2025 – November 16, 2025

The thesis — published August 18, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$14.10
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.44 – $12.70
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$13.35
published August 18, 2025
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

OBDC pays steady income and looks ready to rebound after a sharp slide. The price appears more beaten down than the business deserves, with strong returns showing up again this quarter. Recent news linked the company to financing large AI infrastructure. If interest rates stay calm, sentiment can improve, the price can drift toward its usual value, and the dividend helps cushion near term swings.

Primary drivers

  • High returns and a steady dividend provide support for the share price.
  • Price looks beaten down and may rebound toward its more typical range.
  • Financing for AI infrastructure could boost demand and long-term earnings.
  • Calm interest rates help keep lending income steady and more predictable.

How it played out

OBDC: target was not reached

Lyra published OBDC on 2025-08-18 at $13.35 with a short-term thesis for 12% growth toward $14.10. The thesis pointed to steady income, a dividend, high returns, a beaten-down price that could rebound, financing for artificial intelligence infrastructure, and calm interest rates helping lending income stay steady.

Inside the 2025-08-18 to 2025-11-16 window, OBDC rose to a $13.63 peak on 2025-09-05, a 2% gain. It never reached $14.10. By the end, it was $11.55. The thesis partially played out early, but the target was missed and the signal ended below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On October 15, 2025, MarketWatch reported that Meta and Blue Owl had entered a $27 billion private-credit joint venture tied to the Hyperion data center in Louisiana. On November 16, 2025, the Financial Times reported that Blue Owl had planned to merge Blue Owl Capital Corporation II with OBDC.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All OBDC signals