Track record · closed signal

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) — closed signal from August 17, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 15, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

LITE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$115.86 Published $143.67 Target $232.15 Window close $273.89 Peak
$114.00 – $118.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$115.86Published — price the day we called it
$143.67Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$273.89Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$232.15Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 19 days.

Peak price
$273.89
peak on November 10, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+136.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$232.15
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
19
Window
August 17, 2025 – November 15, 2025

The thesis — published August 17, 2025

Predicted growth
+24%
over the measurement window
Target price
$143.67
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$114.00 – $118.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$115.86
published August 17, 2025
Confidence
63%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock was hit hard, but the business is improving. On Aug 14 the company beat expectations: sales rose 21% and profit per share came in above forecasts. On Aug 16 a major bank raised its view and set a $135 target. Recent price action suggests more buyers are stepping in. If big AI and optics customers keep ordering, shares could rebound over the next 3 months, though supply and inventory issues are key risks.

Primary drivers

  • Shares were oversold; new buying interest hints the downtrend may be ending.
  • Stronger FY25 report raised expectations with 21% sales growth and better EPS.
  • Big bank upgrade with a $135 target price adds credibility to the turnaround.
  • Rising need for AI and data-center optics could lift orders and revenue.

How it played out

LITE: target reached in 19 days

Lyra published LITE on Aug. 17 at $115.86, with expected growth of 24% and a $143.67 target. The thesis pointed to an oversold stock, new buying interest, 21% sales growth, better profit per share, a big bank upgrade with a $135 target, and stronger demand for artificial intelligence and data-center optics. Supply and inventory issues were named as risks.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 19 days. It later peaked at $273.89 on Nov. 10, with a 136.4% peak gain. It ended the window at $232.15. The thesis played out clearly.

What happened during the window

On Nov. 5, 2025, Investor's Business Daily reported that Lumentum posted fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.10 per share and revenue of $533.8 million. The same report said Lumentum guided for $650 million in December-quarter revenue.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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