Track record · closed signal

Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI) — closed signal from August 17, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 15, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PBI price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$11.17 Published $15.49 Target $9.17 Window close $12.65 Peak
$10.59 – $11.28Entry zone — fair-value band
$11.17Published — price the day we called it
$15.49Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$12.65Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$9.17Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 33% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$12.65
peak on September 8, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+13.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$9.17
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 17, 2025 – November 15, 2025

The thesis — published August 17, 2025

Predicted growth
+40%
over the measurement window
Target price
$15.49
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$10.59 – $11.28
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$11.17
published August 17, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Pitney Bowes is a turnaround idea with room for a quick rebound. On Aug 13, a key profit measure more than doubled compared to last year and margins improved. On Aug 11, it raised $230M through a convertible note and paired it with buybacks, adding financial flexibility. The price has fallen a lot while interest is high, so a pop is possible. Over the next 3 months, better parcel automation and cost control could make cash flow look stronger.

Primary drivers

  • Profits are rising fast as the turnaround takes hold and costs ease
  • Cash position improved after a $230M convertible deal and buybacks
  • Price looks washed out while interest is high, so a sharp rebound is possible
  • Automation in parcel shipping should lift efficiency and service levels

How it played out

PBI: target was not reached

Lyra published PBI at $11.17 on 2025-08-17 as a short-term turnaround idea with 40% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a profit measure that more than doubled compared to last year, improved margins, a $230M convertible note with buybacks, high interest after a large price fall, and parcel automation that could help efficiency and service levels.

Inside the window from 2025-08-17 to 2025-11-15, PBI peaked at $12.65 on 2025-09-08, a 13.3% gain. It stayed below the $15.49 target and never reached it. The stock ended at $9.17. The thesis partially played out early, but it missed the target and finished below the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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