Track record · closed signal

Kanzhun Ltd. ADR (BZ) — closed signal from July 3, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 1, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

BZ price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$17.82 Published $20.89 Target $22.73 Window close $25.08 Peak
$16.76 – $17.85Entry zone — fair-value band
$17.82Published — price the day we called it
$20.89Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$25.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$22.73Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 36 days.

Peak price
$25.08
peak on September 16, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+40.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$22.73
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
36
Window
July 3, 2025 – October 1, 2025

The thesis — published July 3, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$20.89
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$16.76 – $17.85
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$17.82
published July 3, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

A recent Hong Kong share sale raised about US$280 million, giving Kanzhun extra cash to improve its online recruiting tools and grow abroad. On 2 Jul, analysts noted free cash flow of CN¥3.2 billion, far above the profit it reports, so the company is turning earnings into real money. The market mood is very positive, and the stock is priced at only 13 times 2025 earnings while rivals trade at 18 times. If buying picks up, the price could reach about $22, or 18 %, helped by government steps likely to boost hiring soon.

Primary drivers

  • US$280 m raised in HK listing removes near-term cash concerns
  • CN¥3.2 b free cash flow beats profit, proving strong cash generation
  • Shares at 13x 2025 earnings vs peers at 18x give room for price growth
  • Expected policy-driven hiring rebound could speed up revenue gains

How it played out

BZ: target reached in 36 days

Lyra published BZ at $17.82 on 2025-07-03 with expected growth of 18% and a target of $20.89. The thesis pointed to the Hong Kong share sale, strong free cash flow, a lower earnings multiple than peers, and a possible hiring rebound tied to policy support.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 36 days. It later peaked at $25.08 on 2025-09-16, a 40.7% gain. By 2025-10-01, it ended at $22.73, still above the target. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On August 20, 2025, Kanzhun reported second-quarter 2025 revenue of RMB2,102.4 million and net income of RMB711.2 million. The same release said the board approved an annual dividend policy and extended a share repurchase program of up to US$250 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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