Track record · closed signal

Range Resources Corporation (RRC) — closed signal from August 17, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 15, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

RRC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$34.21 Published $40.84 Target $38.14 Window close $39.86 Peak
$33.16 – $34.65Entry zone — fair-value band
$34.21Published — price the day we called it
$40.84Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$39.86Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$38.14Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$39.86
peak on October 2, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+16.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$38.14
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 17, 2025 – November 15, 2025

The thesis — published August 17, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$40.84
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$33.16 – $34.65
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$34.21
published August 17, 2025
Confidence
90%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Range Resources is tied closely to natural gas, and its price looks washed out and starting to steady. More buyers are stepping in than usual. Rising power needs from AI data centers point to stronger gas demand. The EU pledged $750B of US LNG, and Q2 profit per share beat estimates by 50%. In a mildly positive market, these drivers could lift shares toward the high-$30s in 3 months. Swings may be bumpy, but low costs help limit downside.

Primary drivers

  • Share price looks beaten down but is starting to firm up and improve
  • AI data centers and EU plans point to steadier natural gas demand
  • Q2 profit per share beat estimates, showing the plan is working
  • Very low drilling costs in Appalachia help keep profits more resilient

How it played out

RRC: thesis rose but did not reach the target

Lyra published RRC at $34.21 on 2025-08-17 with a short-term thesis for 20% growth. The thesis pointed to a washed-out share price starting to steady, more buyer interest, stronger gas demand tied to artificial intelligence data centers and EU LNG plans, a Q2 profit-per-share beat, and low Appalachia drilling costs.

Inside the window, RRC rose to $39.86 on 2025-10-02, a 16.5% peak gain. It stayed below the $40.84 target, so the target was never reached. By 2025-11-15, it ended at $38.14. The thesis partially played out, but it missed the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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