Track record · closed signal

Astrana Health Inc (ASTH) — closed signal from August 7, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 5, 2026 — +7.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ASTH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$35.50 – $37.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$36.42Published — price the day we called it

$40.79Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$41.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$39.01Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 7 days.

At window close

+7.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+12.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$39.01

last close inside the window, ended November 5, 2026

Peak price

$41.00

peak on August 19, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published August 7, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$40.79

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$35.50 – $37.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$36.42

published August 7, 2026

Confidence

62%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Astrana shows fast platform growth, better cash flow and higher profit guidance, but earnings reports use different definitions that make results hard to compare. Margins are thin and the company has more debt than cash. Price action has been weak, so a short-term rebound depends on the stock settling down rather than fresh positive news.

Primary drivers

Platform focused on value-based care driving faster sales growth
Raised profit outlook improves expectations for future profitability
Healthy cash flow supports growth of the care network
Larger scale should lower per-patient costs and help margins

How it played out

ASTH: target reached in 7 days

Lyra published a short-term rebound thesis at 36.42, with 12% expected growth and a 40.79 target. The thesis pointed to faster platform sales growth, higher profit guidance, healthy cash flow and potential cost benefits from scale. It also noted thin margins, more debt than cash and weak price action.

The stock reached 41 on August 19, a 12.6% peak gain. It reached the target in 7 days, then finished the window at 39.01 on November 5. The published thesis played out within the measurement window, although the closing price was below the target.

What happened during the window

On November 5, 2026, Astrana reported third-quarter revenue of $1,023.6 million and net income of $20.3 million.

Astrana Health, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ASTH signals