Track record · closed signal

Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA ADR (BVN) — closed signal from August 7, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 5, 2026 — -17.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BVN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$31.50 – $33.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$34.51Published — price the day we called it

$37.96Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$36.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$28.33Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 70% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-17.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$28.33

last close inside the window, ended November 5, 2026

Peak price

$36.94

peak on August 28, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published August 7, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$37.96

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$31.50 – $33.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$34.51

published August 7, 2026

Confidence

71%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Buenaventura looks cheap relative to profit margins and has cash near zero debt, plus sales more than doubled compared to last year and operating income rose. The price moving above the long-term trend helped the picture, but buying interest is weak, the stock looks stretched, and problems at San Gabriel make the short-term case uncertain; a pullback toward support would make the setup more attractive.

Primary drivers

Record sales show the business scales profitably
Mix of metals reduces dependence on one commodity
Strong cash position helps fund mine projects
Fixing San Gabriel could raise future output

How it played out

BVN: 7% peak gain fell short of the target

Lyra published a short-term thesis on August 7 at $34.51, with expected growth of 10%. The thesis pointed to sales that had more than doubled, higher operating income, strong cash with near-zero debt, a mix of metals, and the possibility that work at San Gabriel could raise output. It also noted weak buying interest and uncertainty around San Gabriel.

BVN rose to a peak of $36.94 on August 28, a gain of 7%. It stayed below the $37.96 target and never reached it. By November 5, it had fallen to $28.33. The thesis partially played out at the peak, but the expected gain did not arrive and the signal ended below its publication price.

What happened during the window

On October 15, Buenaventura announced its third-quarter production and sales volumes. On October 29, it reported third-quarter revenue of $545.3 million and net income of $268.4 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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