Track record · closed signal

Terex Corporation (TEX) — closed signal from August 7, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 5, 2026 — -18.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TEX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$67.12 Published $74.98 Target $54.51 Window close $68.85 Peak
$64.17 – $66.66Entry zone — fair-value band
$67.12Published — price the day we called it
$74.98Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$68.85Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$54.51Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 22% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-18.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+2.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$54.51
last close inside the window, ended November 5, 2026
Peak price
$68.85
peak on August 13, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published August 7, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$74.98
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$64.17 – $66.66
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$67.12
published August 7, 2026
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Terex raised its sales and profit outlook and has repeatedly reported better-than-expected results, showing steady demand for heavy equipment. However, trading has been light, buying pressure is weak, the company carries significant debt, and profit margins are modest. Near-term strength looks selective and not a confirmed wider industry advance.

Primary drivers

  • Higher guidance stabilizes short-term forecasts
  • Infrastructure-driven equipment demand supports sales
  • Repeated earnings beats show consistent execution
  • Wide product mix reduces dependence on one market

How it played out

TEX: the 12% growth thesis missed

Lyra published the TEX thesis on August 7 at $67.12, expecting 12% growth toward $74.98. The thesis pointed to higher guidance, infrastructure-driven equipment demand, repeated earnings beats and a wide product mix. It also noted weak buying pressure, significant debt and modest margins.

The price peaked at $68.85 on August 13, a gain of 2.6%. It stayed below the target throughout the window. By November 5, it had fallen to $54.51. The expected short-term rise did not play out. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On October 28, Terex reported third-quarter sales of $2.2 billion, up 58.4% on a reported basis and 11.6% on a pro forma basis. It also announced a new $500 million share repurchase authorization.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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