Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from August 7, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 5, 2026 — -18.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$205.00 – $216.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$222.37Published — price the day we called it

$255.73Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$243.37Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$181.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 63% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-18.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+9.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$181.60

last close inside the window, ended November 5, 2026

Peak price

$243.37

peak on October 6, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published August 7, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$255.73

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$205.00 – $216.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$222.37

published August 7, 2026

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA shows strong, ongoing demand for AI hardware, high profit margins, repeat earnings beats, and a large cash balance. New Blackwell capacity deals and faster data-center forecasts support future sales. Short-term risk is timing: the stock ran up and is extended above the recent trend, so it could pull back or face closer scrutiny of AI spending.

Primary drivers

Blackwell capacity deals show clear demand
AI infrastructure growth boosts accelerator sales
Software and networking add recurring revenue and margin
Large cash balance supports product investment and expansion

How it played out

NVDA: rose 9.4% but never reached the target

On August 7, Lyra published a short-term thesis for 15% growth from $222.37. The target was $255.73. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence hardware, Blackwell capacity deals, faster data-center forecasts, software and networking revenue, high margins, repeated earnings beats, and a large cash balance. It also identified the stock's recent run-up and scrutiny of spending as short-term risks.

Inside the window, NVDA reached a peak of $243.37 on October 6, a 9.4% gain. That stayed below the $255.73 target, so the expected 15% growth never arrived. By November 5, the price had fallen to $181.60. The thesis partially played out because the stock rose during the window, but it missed the target and ended below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On August 26, NVIDIA reported second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion and data-center revenue of $89.0 billion. On October 21, the company announced plans with supply-chain partners to expand global manufacturing capacity.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals