Track record · closed signal

Lam Research Corp (LRCX) — closed signal from August 7, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 5, 2026 — -40.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LRCX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$312.10 Published $355.79 Target $185.20 Window close $352.56 Peak
$300.00 – $313.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$312.10Published — price the day we called it
$355.79Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$352.56Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$185.20Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 93% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-40.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+13%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$185.20
last close inside the window, ended November 5, 2026
Peak price
$352.56
peak on October 2, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published August 7, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$355.79
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$300.00 – $313.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$312.10
published August 7, 2026
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lam is a direct play on the machines chips need for AI and memory. The company has regularly beaten expectations, keeps healthy profit margins, and holds more cash than debt, which helps in bad cycles. Shares are trading near recent trend levels and recent factory-investment news supports demand, but memory spending can swing quickly and hurt expectations.

Primary drivers

  • Plans to build AI chips should boost equipment sales
  • Memory factory spending raises demand for etch and deposition tools
  • Service work on installed machines creates steady recurring revenue
  • Large net cash balance helps weather down cycles

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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