Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from August 6, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 4, 2026 — -10.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$223.17 Published $263.34 Target $200.13 Window close $243.37 Peak
$210.00 – $218.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$223.17Published — price the day we called it
$263.34Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$243.37Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$200.13Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 51% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-10.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+9.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+0%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$200.13
last close inside the window, ended November 4, 2026
Peak price
$243.37
peak on October 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published August 6, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$263.34
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$210.00 – $218.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$223.17
published August 6, 2026
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is benefiting from big demand for AI computing, strong profit margins, and a healthy balance sheet. Recent reports back up the earnings outlook and make valuation easier to justify. However, the stock has risen quickly and is above short-term levels, so high volatility and concentrated AI spending mean a pullback is the more likely near-term scenario.

Primary drivers

  • Growing need for AI servers drives strong sales
  • High profit margins and cash give flexibility
  • Price strength shows continued buyer interest
  • Recent guidance and coverage support forecasts

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals