Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from August 5, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 3, 2026 — -3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$14.72 Published $15.91 Target $14.27 Window close $15.03 Peak
$13.93 – $14.42Entry zone — fair-value band
$14.72Published — price the day we called it
$15.91Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$15.03Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.27Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 23% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+2.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-1.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$14.27
last close inside the window, ended November 3, 2026
Peak price
$15.03
peak on August 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published August 5, 2026

Predicted growth
+9%
over the measurement window
Target price
$15.91
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$13.93 – $14.42
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$14.72
published August 5, 2026
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Valley National looks like a regional bank that may be starting to recover because loans to businesses are growing, more customers are keeping deposits, and fee income is picking up. Recent results showed stronger revenue and steady adjusted profits, but an earnings miss, weak trading interest and funding or credit risks keep confidence cautious.

Primary drivers

  • More business loans help the bank earn more interest income
  • Bigger core deposits can reduce reliance on expensive funding
  • Higher fee income broadens sources of revenue beyond loans
  • Reasonable valuation leaves room for the stock to re-rate if fundamentals improve

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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