Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from August 5, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 3, 2026 — -6.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$220.59 Published $258.09 Target $206.69 Window close $243.37 Peak
$205.00 – $216.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$220.59Published — price the day we called it
$258.09Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$243.37Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$206.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 61% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-6.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+10.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-1.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$206.69
last close inside the window, ended November 3, 2026
Peak price
$243.37
peak on October 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published August 5, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$258.09
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$205.00 – $216.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$220.59
published August 5, 2026
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA benefits from very strong demand for AI hardware and has high profits, steady earnings and a solid balance sheet. Recent industry news backs continued spending, but competitors' margin pressure shows that costs can matter more than raw growth. Near term upside exists, but the stock is extended, volatile and crowded, which weakens buying quality.

Primary drivers

  • Ongoing demand for AI chips and data-center networking
  • High profitability and consistent earnings performance
  • Strong cash and liquidity to fund platform growth
  • Clear leadership position in accelerated computing markets

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals